Why Biogen's Stock Rebound Is Good News for Biotechs

(Note: The author of this fundamental analysis is a financial writer and portfolio manager. )

An analysis of the technical chart of Biogen Inc. (BIIB) shows the stock could be set to rebound by about 7%, giving shares the chance to rise back towards $282 from its price of roughly $263, a jump of about 7.5%. Biogen shares were up by roughly 1% on April 24, after the company reported better than expected first-quarter earnings per share, and revenue that was in line with estimates.

Biogen's stock has been hit hard in 2018, with the stock down by nearly 30%, since late January peaking near $370 per share. But since that time shares of Biogen have stumbled as the company had a series of missteps, including increasing the number of patients in its enrollment in one of its essential drugs in development, aducanumab for Alzheimer's disease. (For more, see also: Biogen Stock Is Ready for a Breakout.)

BIIB data by YCharts

Key Support

Biogen shares fell to an intraday low of $251, a significant technical support level, that goes back to July of 2016. The stock bounced right off that support level and managed to stay above it the rest of the day. Should that support level continue to hold, and shares of the stock continue to rise, the next level of big resistance comes at $281, about 7.5% higher than the stock's current price. 

Relative Strength Continues to Rise

Additionally, the relative strength index (RSI) continues to improve as well, since hitting oversold conditions at the end of March with a reading below 30. It is only the third time the stock has hit that level since 2016, and each time the stock rebounded and moved higher. The RSI has also been trending higher in recent weeks as the stock price has been falling, a bullish divergence. This is another indication that perhaps shares of Biogen may be looking to rebound. (For more, see also: Biotech Stocks Near Massive Breakout.)

Sector Impact

The Biotech sector has been dragged down by Biogen since the end of January, and that is because it is a big component within the NASDAQ Biotech ETF (IBB), accounting for a nearly 7.5% weighting. Should shares of Biogen begin to rebound or reverse its recent downtrend, perhaps it can also help to lift some of the sectors along with it. The Biotech ETF is nearly 13% off its highs in late January as well. 

There are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic on Biogen over the longer-term with revenue seen growing by only 2 to 3% in 2019 and 2020. While earnings are forecast to rise by only 5% in each year. But still, shares of the stock have been hit hard, and the signs are there for a modest rebound and perhaps a longer-term bottom. 

Michael Kramer is the Founder of Mott Capital Management LLC, a registered investment adviser, and the manager of the company's actively managed, long-only Thematic Growth Portfolio. Kramer typically buys and holds stocks for a duration of three to five years. Click here for Kramer's bio and his portfolio's holdings. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.